Mike Tomlin's Steelers need a win. Fortunately for them, they play the Browns this week. (Max Faulkner/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/TNS)

Week 11 lines/picks: Must-win game for Pittsburgh makes for easy picking against Cleveland

MATCHUP SPREAD MONEYLINE OVER/UNDER

Tennessee at Indianapolis IND -3 TEN +130, IND -150 +/- 53

Jacksonville at Detroit DET -6.5 JAX +230, DET -270 +/- 47.5

Tampa Bay at Kansas City KC -7.5 TB +270, KC -330 +/- 44.5

Chicago at NYG NYG -7.5 CHI +270, NYG -330 +/- 44

Arizona at Minnesota MIN -2 ARI +110, MIN -130 +/- 40

Buffalo at Cincinnati CIN -3 BUF +125, CIN -145 +/- 47.5

Baltimore at Dallas DAL -7 GB -150, TEN +130 +/- 45

Pittsburgh at Cleveland PIT -8 PIT -340, CLE +280 +/- 45

Miami at Los Angeles MIA -2 MIA -140, LA +120 +/- 39.5

New England at San Francisco NE -12 NE -700, SF +500 +/- 51.5

Philadelphia at Seattle SEA -6.5 PHI +245, SEA -290 +/- 43

Green Bay at Washington WAS -3 GB +125, WAS -145 +/- 50


MNF

Houston at Oakland OAK -6 HOU +220, OAK -260 +/- 46.5

Lines courtesy William Hill, updated Friday, Nov. 18

Palmer’s picks

Tennessee/Indianapolis — over

This pick is pretty simple: A top-five rushing team playing one of the worst defenses at stoping the run outside of Santa Clara. The Colts are surrendering an average of 28.8 points per game at home this season, and that’s including a game against an anemic Chicago Bears offense. The Titans’ streak of finishing most of their red zone trips with a touchdown is bound to regress to the norm at some point, but their running game — anchored by a stellar offensive line and DeMarco Murray — is too good to overlook in this one. Combine that with Andrew Luck and his big-play offense finding pay-dirt a few times, and I won’t be scared off by a high over/under line.

Buffalo ML

The Bengals played on Monday while the Bills have had extended rest, coming off a bye. Cincy hasn’t played many good teams this season, but when they have — Patriots, Cowboys, Broncos, Steelers — they’ve lost. The Bills aren’t perfect, but they’re better than the Giants, who the Bengals lost to on MNF recently. Tyrod Taylor against a stout Cincinnati front-four should be a fun matchup for viewers, with a potential bonus of Geno Atkins steamrolling Ritchie Incognito. I’m just not sure late-season Andy Dalton can get the job done against an average Bills defensive group.

Pittsburgh -8

The Steelers need to start stringing wins together if they’re going to make the postseason. Being in Cleveland is always a good start for that aim.

Baltimore +7

The Cowboys win games on the ground. The Ravens have the league’s best defense in terms of stopping the run. I don’t feel great about trusting Joe Flacco to keep this game close, but believe his defense will.

Washington/Green Bay — over

The Packers were absolutely smoked last weekend by the Titans and an already decimated-by-injury defense lost a couple more starters in the process. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins is quietly shaping into a top-10 quarterback, and the Pack getting torched by Delanie Walker last week must make Jordan Read feel great about his chances of having a breakout game.

Week 10: 2-3

Overall: 29-20-1

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