Palmer’s Picks: Rebuilding after Justin Houston ruined Week 4

This message is for everyone out there who also had a brilliant bet (either on Washington +6.5 or the under) ruined by Kansas City pass rusher Justin Houston scoring a meaningless touchdown as time expired of Monday Night Football last week. You are not alone. You are loved. That play was ridiculous. We’ll get through this together. Why didn’t he just go down after scooping the fumble? Now that we’ve gotten that out of our system, it’s time to realize there’s no time to dwell on the past. On to what’s next:

Jets/Browns — over 39

It feels wrong, expecting these teams to score points, but you have to remember how bad these teams are on both sides of the ball. A pick-six here, a pick-six there — baby, you’ve got an over-stew going. Cleveland is allowing 26.8 points per game, the Jets — don’t let their recent win streak fool you — are allowing more than 23 every time they take the field, and that’s with a complete offensive no-show that only Jay Cutler could author skewing the numbers. If New York could score on Jacksonville, they can score on Cleveland.

Lions -2.5

Detroit grinded out a tough win over the Minnesota Vikings last week, following a heart-wrenching “defeat” to the Atlanta Falcons, whom the NFL gifted a win with another absurd rule interpretation that screwed the Lions. I’m not putting too much stock into the Panthers’ win over the Patriots last week and I’m putting even less stock into their 3-1 record. Detroit takes home the win thanks to an impressive fourth-quarter drive by Matthew Stafford.

Seahawks ML

There’s too much talent on this Seattle defense to allow the Rams to continue their offensive onslaught on the league. In this game, Jared Goff will feel pressure for the first time all season and that’ll force him to look more like last year’s Goff than this year’s borderline MVP candidate. Todd Gurley will be solid, but the Seahawks’ linebackers are up to the task of limiting him from breaking the game open, and the Rams can’t stop anyone. It’s still Seattle’s division until proven otherwise. The Seahawks validate that claim today.

Packers +2

Green Bay is home to the best team in the NFC. This team has been limited by injuries in all phases of the game and it hasn’t slowed them down. Aaron Rodgers, typically a slow starter, has been on fire this season. This week, he gets starters Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari back to protect him against a solid Cowboys defensive front. If Ty Montgomery plays, this will be an easy cover (and win). If he doesn’t, the Packers still have enough to keep it close.

Chiefs/Texans — under 46

This is a bet to reflect my belief that — although awesome and full of potential — Deshaun Watson isn’t as good as he looked last week against a sub-standard Tennessee defense. Houston has a top-10 defense and Kareem Hunt won’t be able to run over the entire league for his entire rookie season. Besides, those shovel passes off of the read-option can’t work all season as defenses adjust to Andy Reid’s tricks. Also, the Under Bettors of America are due after Houston ruined everything last week.

Week 4: 2-3

2017: 8-12

MATCHUP SPREAD MONEYLINE OVER/UNDER

LA Chargers at NYG NYG -3 LAC +150, NYG -170 +/- 44.5

Buffalo at Cincinnati CIN -3 BUF +140, CIN -160 +/- 39

NYJ at Cleveland PICK NYJ -105, CLE -115 +/- 39

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh PIT -8 JAX +330, PIT -410 +/- 43

Tennessee at Miami

San Francisco at Indianapolis IND -1.5 SF +105, IND -125 +/- 44.5

Arizona at Philadelphia PHI -6.5 ARI +235, PHI -275 +/- 45

Carolina at Detroit DET -2.5 CAR +120, DET -140 +/- 43

Seattle at LA Rams LAR -1.5 SEA +105, LAR -125 +/- 46.5

Baltimore at Oakland OAK -3 BAL +120, OAK -140 +/- 39.5

Green Bay at Dallas DAL -2 GB +110, DAL -130 +/- 52.5

Kansas City at Houston KC -1 KC -125, HOU +105 +/- 46

MNF

Minnesota at Chicago

Lines courtesy William Hill; updated Friday, Oct. 6

On bye week: Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, Washington

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