Support for Proposition 30, 38 falling behind, poll finds

Lenny Ignelzi/APCalifornia Gov. Jerry Brown makes a point while speaking in support of Proposition 30 at an elementary school Tuesday. See the poll results for Props 30 and 38 at the end of the article.

Support is slipping for two tax measures just weeks before voters decide the outcomes in the Nov. 6 election, new polling numbers show.

Proposition 30 is the measure backed by Gov. Jerry Brown. It would increase for seven years the tax on annual incomes that exceed $250,000 and raise the state sales tax by a quarter percent for four years. Proposition 38, proposed by millionaire Molly Munger, would increase the income tax for nearly all Californians for 12 years.

But new polling numbers from the Public Policy Institute of California show that voter support for both measures has decreased since September.

According to the numbers, 48 percent of likely voters support Prop. 30, 44 percent would vote no and 8 percent are undecided. In September, a PPIC poll showed support for Prop. 30 at 52 percent.

Prop. 38 has even less support, with 39 percent of likely voters saying they support it. That’s a 6 percent drop from September.

The passage of Prop. 30 would keep school funding as is and make a constitutional change to lock in funds that are being used for inmate realignment, the process that makes counties responsible for low-level offenders and parolees instead of the state. If the proposition fails, $6 billion would immediately be axed from the state budget.

In San Francisco, the school district stands to lose about $24 million should the Brown-backed measure fail. City College of San Francisco could lose about $10 million.

If Prop. 38 passes, there would be an increase in the amount of funding that is directed toward K-12 education. If both of the tax measures pass, the one with the highest number of votes would prevail.

If both fail, there is a financial risk that exceeds the trigger cuts. Moody’s Investors Service said Wednesday that if both tax measures fail it will be reviewing the credit rating of the 327 Moody’s-rated districts in the state. Moody’s said it expects that as many as 150 could face fiscal pressure if both measures fail.

A downgraded bond rating can make it more expensive for municipalities to borrow money.

mbillings@sfexaminer.com

Ballot numbers

Proposition Yes No Undecided
Prop. 30 48% 44% 8%
Prop. 38 39% 53% 9%

Note: Totals greater or less than 100 percent are due to rounding.
Source: Public Policy Institute of California

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