Report: Mission District to lose 8,000 Latino residents in next decade

San Francisco’s Mission District will see a massive drop in the number of Latino residents while higher income earners will increase during the next decade, according to a budget analyst report released Tuesday.

Supervisor David Campos announced the results of the report –its conclusion was based on historical trends– during Tuesday’s Board of Supervisors meeting. He had requested the information following an unflattering report issued by city economist Ted Egan, of the City Controller’s Office, about impacts of the proposed Mission housing moratorium, which is before voters on Nov. 3.

“What this report found is actually very alarming,” Campos said. “It essentially means, based on the report, that we would lose this neighborhood as we currently know it.”

The report can be found here.

According to the report, “If current trends continue and the relative changes seen between 2000 and the 2009-2013 period are annualized going forward … the Mission District’s Hispanic/Latino population will decline from 48 percent of the total Mission District population to 42 percent by 2017 and to 31 percent [10,380] by 2025.”

Campos said that “that is a significant reduction from the years when this neighborhood was majority Latino.”

Looking at historic trends, the report projected that “a significant decline” would occur in “households earning between $35,000 and $99,999 and a significant increase is projected for households earning more than $150,000.”

Campos, who supports the Mission moratorium, said the report also shows those preaching supply and demand housing are not realistic.

The report said that “average prices would still increase over the 30 years unless significantly more than 15,300 housing units per year are added, or at least 13,289 more per year than the actual 2,011 added between 1980 and 2010 .”

Having reviewed the numbers, Campos said, “We would have to build another San Francisco on top of this city today. In the Mission we would have to build another Mission on top of the Mission for that argument to actually have the impact of reducing housing costs.”

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