Why Rand Paul will win in November

I don’t know how anyone can win a contested statewide election in Kentucky whilst supporting Obamacare, abortion on demand, and card check (the euphemistically titled “Employee Free Choice Act”). Somehow, Attorney General Jack Conway, D, did it once, but those issues probably weren’t much discussed in the 2007 state election cycle.

Conway, who won last night’s primary over Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, filled out the Daily Kos questionnaire. Here are a few of his answers:

There is a clear choice in the Kentucky Democratic primary for U.S. Senate – I support health care reform and Daniel Mongiardo does not….

I support the Employee Free Choice Act…

I believe that undocumented workers who want to emerge from the shadows of the underground economy and participate in American life as legal residents should be able to eventually become citizens…

With official unemployment over 10% in Kentucky and nationwide right now we need a level playing field for workers based on prevailing wage requirements and standard workplace safety rules.

Along with “card-check,” that last one about “prevailing wage” is political speak for: “Hi, I’m a union tool who will happily accept 20 percent unemployment if it helps the AFL-CIO.”

Conway seems a bit too proud that he supports a law that 60 percent of Kentuckians want to repeal. And while I’d give his immigration views a more sympathetic hearing, I really don’t think Kentuckians are going to support a pro-immigration-amnesty candidate, considering that 65 percent of them support Arizona’s new immigration law. This is why, despite Conway’s demonstrated fundraising prowess — which was mostly a creation of Washington Democrats anyway — the campaign against him will require no creativity at all, just a few months of hard work and a lot of money.

David Frum has suggested that a Democrat can defeat Paul by “out-national-security-ing” him. I think this is a case of getting high on one’s own supply. It ignores two election cycles’ worth of voters punishing Bush’s Iraq War.

I would not be surprised to see an amateur like Paul stumble a bit between now and November. But as long as he can avoid self-destruction on the level of Jim Bunning’s 2004 campaign, there’s nothing between him and the U.S. Senate.

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