Where the NRCC is spending: At least 57 House seats in play (Updated with some ad videos)

A new round of FEC disclosures from the NRCC. You can only tell so much by where they’re spending, but these reports suggest the NRCC feels good about its chances all over the map, and isn’t afraid to spend everywhere at once.

A few notes first:

  • They’re advertising in 44 Democratic districts this week — more than enough to flip the House — plus one open Republican-held district (IL-10).
  • MI-7: Another huge ad buy against Rep. Mark Schauer, D, who is behind in some surveys but whom Democrats insist is in the lead. Looks like Republicans agree with their assessment.
  • NC-7: Another $60,000 against Rep. Mike McIntyre, who faces Iraq vet Ilario Pantano. Republicans may have created a great opportunity here where none existed. But note that there’s nothing this time against Rep. Larry Kissell, D, in NC-8.
  • PA-10: This district is so heavily Republican that former Rep. Don Sherwood, R, lost narrowly in 2006 despite the revelation of his mistress and credible allegations that he had mistreated her. Rep. Chris Carney, D, faces an opponent with many flaws, but Republicans apparently believe they can win anyway, and they might well be right.
  • VARIOUS: This round of disclosures squares well with the New York Times report on how Republicans haven’t put away a lot of the races they had hoped to have sealed up by now. For example, the NRCC is still spending against Kratovil, Herron, Kosmas, Grayson, Pomeroy, Herseth-Sandlin, and Boyd. Some of these, though — especially the three Florida races — might go away soon.
  • For a few examples of pickups the Republicans should probably get that aren’t this list, consider these thirteen: KS-3 (open, Moore), TN-6 (open, Gordon), NY-29 (open, vacant), OH-1 (Driehaus), OH-15 (Kilroy), AR-2 (open, Snyder), CO-4 (Markey), NH-1 (Shea-Porter), NH-2 (open, Hodes), VA-2 (Nye), NM-2 (Teague), LA-3 (open, Melancon), and NY-19 (Hall).  So at a minimum, we’re really talking about 57 seats in play, not counting the seats that are bigger longshots for the GOP.

And here’s the data from the FEC. The asterisk indicates districts where both parties are playing this week:

  • PA-10: $15,000 for a poll and $157,000 for “media” against Rep. Chris Carney, D.
  • VA-9: $118,000 for “media”  against Rep. Rick Boucher, D.
  • *AR-1 (open, Berry): $15,000 for a survey and $149,000 for “media” against Chad Causey, D.
  • *WV-1 (open, Mollohan): $14,000 for a survey and $154,000 for “media” against Mike Oliverio, D.
  • *MS-1: $55,000 for “media” against Rep. Travis Childers, D.

  • AZ-1: $26,000 for surveys and $71,000 for “media” against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D.
  • *NM-1: $15,000 for a poll and $93,000 for “media” against Rep. Martin Heinrich, D.
  • FL-24: $15,000 for a survey and $215,000 for “media” against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, D.
  • *OH-16: $15,000 for a survey and $243,000 for “media” against Rep. John Boccieri, D.
  • SD-AL: $16,000 for a survey and $123,000 for “media” against Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, D.
  • *PA-11: $145,000 for “media” against Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D.
  • *WI-7 (open, Obey): $85,000 for “media” against Julie Lassa, D.

  • *MD-1: $15,000 for a survey and $62,000 for “media” against Rep. Frank Kratovil, D.
  • NC-7: $60,000 for “media” against Rep. Mike McIntyre, D.
  • *MI-1 (open, Stupak): $182,000 for “media” against Gary McDowell, D.

  • *NY-24: $15,000 for a survey and $67,000 for “media” against Rep. Mike Arcuri, D.

  • *WA-3 (open, Baird): $151,000 for “media” against Dennis Heck, D.
  • *MO-4: $167,000 for “media” against Rep. Ike Skelton, D.
  • VA-5: $50,000 for “media” against Rep. Tom Perriello, D.
  • TN-8 (open, Tanner): $179,000 for “media” against Roy Herron, D.

  • NY-20: $75,000 for “media” against Rep. Scott Murphy, D.
  • *ND-AL: $187,000 for “media” against Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D.
  • *IL-10 (open, Kirk): $56,000 for “media” against Dan Seals, D.
  • IL-11: $33,000 for “media” against Rep. Debbie Halvorson, D.
  • *IL-14: $53,000 for “media” against Rep. Bill Foster, D.
  • NJ-3: $28,000 for “media” against Rep. John Adler, D.
  • PA-7 (open, Sestak): $46,000 against Bryan Lentz, D.
  • PA-8: $38,000 for “media” against Rep. Patrick Murphy, D.
  • CA-11: $56,000 for “media” against Rep. Jerry McNerney, D.
  • KY-6: $98,000 for “media” against Rep. Ben Chandler, D.

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  • IN-8: $15,000 for a survey and $79,000 for “media” against Trent Van Haaften, D.
  • FL-8: $15,000 for a survey and $215,000 for “media” against Rep. Alan Grayson, D.
  • TX-17: $31,000 for “media” against Rep. Chet Edwards, D.
  • FL-2: $94,000 for “media” against Rep. Allen Boyd, D.
  • *AL-2: $99,000 for “media” against Rep. Bobby Bright, D.
  • *PA-3: $84,000 for “media” against Rep. Kathleen Dahlkemper, D.
  • GA-8: $75,000 for “media” against Rep. Jim Marshall, D.
  • *SC-5: $134,000 for “media” against Rep. John Spratt, D.
  • *NV-3: $133,000 for “media” against Rep. Dina Titus, D.
  • IN-2: $85,000 for “media” against Rep. Joe Donnelly, D.

  • *AZ-5: $15,000 for a survey and $167,000 for “media” against Rep. Harry Mitchell, D.
  • OR-5: $15,000 for a survey and $126,000 for “media” against Rep. Kurt Schrader, D.
  • WI-8: $15,000 for a survey and $84,000 for “media” against Rep. Steve Kagen, D.

  • IN-9: $140,000 for “media” against Rep. Baron Hill, D.
  • *MI-7: $365,000 for “media” against Rep. Mark Schauer, D.

Beltway ConfidentialCAelection 2010US

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