UPDATED: Early voting in NM-1

Republican Jon Barela is the underdog in his race against Rep. Martin Heinrich, D, in New Mexico’s First Congressional district. But the early voting numbers have to give him some hope.

GMU Professor Mike McDonald has been tracking the early vote in several states and counties, including Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and cast more than 80 percent of the votes in the district in 2008.  First, remember that New Mexico Democrats, much like those in West Virginia, dominate the state in terms of registration but are known to split their tickets. Then take a look at this year’s early voting in Bernalillo County compared to that of 2008, when Heinrich won with 56 percent:

??Party      2010       2008
Dem          46.5%      52.7%
Rep           42.5%      32.8%
Other       10.9%       14.5%

That accounts for about 100,000 votes so far, or more than half the total number of ballots cast in Election 2006, when early in-person voting was significantly less common.

A ten-point swing toward Republicans from 2008, and a six-point swing away from Democrats, has to make you think that this one will at least be close. This tally doesn’t include the other four counties in the district, but their totals were quite small, and on the whole they slightly favored the losing Republican candidate.

UPDATE: Just when I say Barela is the underdog, the Albuquerque Journal comes out with a poll giving him a slight lead.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010nmUS

If you find our journalism valuable and relevant, please consider joining our Examiner membership program.
Find out more at www.sfexaminer.com/join/

Just Posted

Many famillies have supported keeping John F. Kennedy Drive in Golden Gate Park free of car traffic. (Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
Fight over future of JFK Drive heats up

Shamann Walton compares accessibilty issues to segregation, likens street closure to ‘1950s South’

Tara Hobson, center, principal at SF International High School, welcomes a student back on Monday, April 26, 2021. (Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
SFUSD seniors get a chance to say goodbye to school in person

Deal to briefly return older students to school leaves many parents and teens dissatisfied

(Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
City College union deal staves off layoffs, class cuts

One year agreement allows community college time to improve its finances

San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb (62) faced down the Rangers Tuesday in a two-game sweep by the giants. (Photography by Chris Victorio | Special to the S.F. Examiner).
Webb posts career-high 10 strikeouts as Giants finish sweep of Rangers

The Texas Rangers arrived in San Francisco with one of the hottest… Continue reading

A Homeless Outreach Team member speaks with homeless people along Jones Street in the Tenderloin on Wednesday, May 6, 2020. (Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
Breed proposes another street outreach team to divert calls away from police

San Francisco would launch a new street outreach team to respond to… Continue reading

Most Read