Trend is no friend to Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.

Rasmussen released a poll today that shows Republican Carly Fiorina leading Barbara Boxer by one point, 48 to 47 percent. That’s if you include “leaners” — people who at first say they’re not sure, but are then urged to pick one anyway.

Especially in the late stages of an election, polls that include leaners are better indicators than those that do not. But here’s an interesting aside about this particular poll. If you don’t include leaners, Fiorina’s lead is 47 to 42 percent. That might be an indication that Boxer’s support is a bit soft.

It’s certainly softer than it has been in past months, and that merits another note on the trend-line in the Rasmussen surveys. Even if you don’t trust a pollster’s methodology, you can learn from his polls because it is usually a consistent methodology. The trend in Rasmussen polls (shown here without leaners) has been that Fiorina gains and Boxer loses support over time. Note that the two have essentially traded places since June.

Carly Fiorina (R) Barbara Boxer (D) Some other candidate Not sure
September 6, 2010 47% 42% 4% 8%
August 24, 2010 43% 44% 5% 8%
August 3, 2010 40% 45% 5% 10%
July 12, 2010 42% 49% 4% 5%
June 9, 2010 43% 48% 5% 5%
May 12, 2010 38% 45% 4% 12%
April 12, 2010 38% 42% 7% 13%
March 11, 2010 40% 46% 4% 10%
February 11, 2010 42% 46% 7% 5%

Beltway ConfidentialCAelection 2010US

If you find our journalism valuable and relevant, please consider joining our Examiner membership program.
Find out more at www.sfexaminer.com/join/

Just Posted

City officials closed San Francisco County Jail No. 4 on the top floor of the Hall of Justice at 850 Bryant St. in September, reducing the number of beds in the jail system by about 400. 
Kevin N. Hume/
S.F. Examiner
SF jail closure prompts doctor to call for release of more inmates

Reduced space increases risk of COVID-19 spreading among those in custody

Cyclists have flocked to Market Street since private vehicles were largely banned from a long stretch of it in January. (Amanda Peterson/Special to the S.F. Examiner)
Plans for sidewalk-level bikeway on Market Street dropped due to costs, increased cyclist volume

Advocates say revisions to Better Market Street fail to meet safety goals of project

Prop. 21 would allow San Francisco city officials to expand rent control to cover thousands more units. (Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
Tenant advocates take another try at expanding rent control with Prop. 21

Measure would allow city to impose new protections on properties 15 years or older

Singer-songwriter Cam is finding musicmaking to be healing during 2020’s world health crisis. 
Courtesy 
Dennis Leupold
Cam challenges country music tropes

Bay Area-bred songwriter releases ‘The Otherside’

Anti-eviction demonstrators rally outside San Francisco Superior Court. (Kevin N. Hume/S.F. Examiner)
Report: Unpaid rent due to COVID-19 could be up to $32.7M per month

A new city report that attempts to quantify how much rent has… Continue reading

Most Read