Trend is no friend to Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.

Rasmussen released a poll today that shows Republican Carly Fiorina leading Barbara Boxer by one point, 48 to 47 percent. That’s if you include “leaners” — people who at first say they’re not sure, but are then urged to pick one anyway.

Especially in the late stages of an election, polls that include leaners are better indicators than those that do not. But here’s an interesting aside about this particular poll. If you don’t include leaners, Fiorina’s lead is 47 to 42 percent. That might be an indication that Boxer’s support is a bit soft.

It’s certainly softer than it has been in past months, and that merits another note on the trend-line in the Rasmussen surveys. Even if you don’t trust a pollster’s methodology, you can learn from his polls because it is usually a consistent methodology. The trend in Rasmussen polls (shown here without leaners) has been that Fiorina gains and Boxer loses support over time. Note that the two have essentially traded places since June.

Carly Fiorina (R) Barbara Boxer (D) Some other candidate Not sure
September 6, 2010 47% 42% 4% 8%
August 24, 2010 43% 44% 5% 8%
August 3, 2010 40% 45% 5% 10%
July 12, 2010 42% 49% 4% 5%
June 9, 2010 43% 48% 5% 5%
May 12, 2010 38% 45% 4% 12%
April 12, 2010 38% 42% 7% 13%
March 11, 2010 40% 46% 4% 10%
February 11, 2010 42% 46% 7% 5%

Beltway ConfidentialCAelection 2010US

If you find our journalism valuable and relevant, please consider joining our Examiner membership program.
Find out more at www.sfexaminer.com/join/

Just Posted

New audio of couple calling police on SF man bolsters racial bias claims, supe says

Pacific Heights incident spurred CAREN Act to outlaw discriminatory reports to police

SFUSD students may start the school year at home

Staff report recommends starting with distance learning in the fall, transitioning to hybrid model

Universities fight new immigration restrictions on international students in court

Local colleges are scrambling to keep international students in the country as… Continue reading

SF library plans to reopen with pickup and drop-off services

Since March, all 28 library locations in San Francisco have been closed… Continue reading

California releasing most prison inmates 12 weeks early to clear space amid coronavirus

California prisons will release inmates as early as 12 weeks ahead of… Continue reading

Most Read