As long as I’m checking election results against my pre-election columns, I thought I’d check on my suspicion that GOP House gains would nearly all be on GOP turf.
The pickups were mostly “snap-backs” (winning back seats the GOP had lost in 2006 or 2008), or continuations of the ongoing realignment in the countryside and the South (winning seats that McCain and Bush both won).
Snap-backs – 35 Republicans won back 21 seats they had lost in 2008 and 14 they had lost in 2006.
Long-term Realignment – 17. These are districts, mostly Southern or rural, that were won by both Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008.
Louisiana-3, South Dakota-At Large, Tennessee-4, Georgia-8, North Dakota-At Large, Arkansas-2, Mississippi-4, South Carolina-5, Virginia-9, Tennessee-6, Tennessee-8, Florida-2, Missouri-4, West Virginia-1, Arkansas-1, Texas-17, New York-13.
Swing Districts – 5. These are non-snap-back districts that have split their vote in the last two presidential elections.
Wash-3, Ohio-6, Mich-1, Texas-23, North Carolina-2.
Democratic Districts – 5. Obama and Kerry carried these districts, and Republicans did not hold them in 2006.
Pennsylvania-11, Illinois-17, Wisconsin-7, Georgia-2, Minnesota-8.