Republicans’ early vote lead still holding in Florida

George Mason Professor Michael McDonald has been tracking the early vote in several states. The most surprising number so far has come out of Florida, where early voting could well account for more than half of the total vote.

For several days, McDonald only had Florida numbers as of Oct. 21. At that point, registered Republicans had cast a staggering 52.8% of the early vote. One week later, the numbers have changed only slightly:

Party 2010 Mode Percent
Dem 34.5% In-Person 39.0%
Rep 51.8% Mail 61.0%
Ind 13.7

The partisan numbers are expected to narrow as more in-person ballots are cast, so don’t get too excited right away. But for perspective, here are the breakdowns from 2008 and 2004:

Party 2008 2004
Dem 45.6% 40.7%
Rep 37.3% 43.5%
No/Other 17.1% 15.8%

Early voting runs for three (and in some parts of the state four) more days. With 1.3 million early votes cast so far — more than a quarter of the total early-plus-Election Day vote in the 2006 midterm — you have to like Rick Scott’s chances in the governor’s race.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010FLUS

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