Well, this race isn’t getting any easier to predict:
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows the candidates tied with 45% of the vote each. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.
Reid and Angle were tied two weeks ago at 47% a piece.
Earlier this year, Reid was considered to be one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents. He picked up just 39% of the vote following Angle’s primary victory but has seen his own numbers improve to 41% in late June, 43% in early July, 45% in late July and 47% in mid-August. This is the first survey since Angle’s victory which failed to show an increase in support for Reid. However, the current numbers match the average of the last three surveys suggesting a level of stability has entered the race.
For Angle, the numbers have been heading in the opposite direction. The GOP nominee attracted 50% of the statewide vote following her primary victory in early June. That fell to 48% later that month, 46% in early July and 43% in late July. The 47% support she received in August represented the first time her support had increased since the primary. As with Reid, her numbers appear to have stabilized.
Aside from the race being tied, there are many odd factors at play that make it very difficult to predict how the Nevada Senate race will break. The fact Reid’s son Rory is running for governor and his name will appear on the same ballot could turn-off some voters. And in theory, Angle should be be a lock even if it’s tied, because the national momentum should bring more Republicans to the polls. Then again, Angle’s campaign has been bumpy and Nevada has an odd “none of the above” option on the ballot that throws a good deal of uncertainty into the mix.