Campaigns in the last month tend to either narrow in the case of one candidate having a large early lead, or to widen when there is a dead heat.
The Nevada Senate race has been a dead-heat for weeks, but now appears to be widening as Rasmussen Reports' latest survey shows Tea Party Republican Sharron Angle moving out to a four-point lead over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows Angle hitting the 50% mark for the first time since mid-August, while Reid earns 46% of the vote,” Rassmussen said.
Support for other candidates has dwindled to only two percent, according to the pollster.
“This marks the widest gap between the two candidates since late June, but the race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings,” Rasmussen said.
Reid and Angle were at a virtual dead heat in recent weeks after an early ad blitz by the heavily financed Reid focused on Angle's alleged negatives.
But Angle responded with her own counter advertising, which tightened things back up.
Now, with election day less than a month away, more voters are beginning to make final decisions one way or the other and, as I've predicted all along would be the case, for all her alleged flaws, the best thing going for Angle is she's not Reid.
With unemployment about to surge back over the 10 percent mark, expect Angle's lead to widen some more to the neighborhood of six to eight points, then perhaps close back a point or two in the last week. Barring something unforeseen, Angle should win by about the margin she now has over Reid.
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