Pa. Democrats: Coming back, or on the verge of collapse? (Updated)

Yesterday afternoon, the DSCC released a poll showing Rep. Joe Sestak, D, leading Pat Toomey, R, in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. Naturally, I considered the source, but you have to wonder when you see a poll like that: Has something happened to change the race? Could it be that the next independent polls will show a shift — from the 5-9 point lead Toomey has held for months, to perhaps a much tighter race?

Well, the answer today is “no.” In fact, the entire state of Pennsylvania is turning into a black hole for Democrats. Among the polls released today are these :

Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. Toomey (Rasmussen Reports)
Toomey 49, Sestak 39  Toomey +10

Pennsylvania 7th District – Meehan vs. Lentz (Franklin & Marshall)
Meehan 34, Lentz 31  Meehan +3

Pennsylvania 10th District – Marino vs. Carney (Times Leader/Critical Insight)
Marino 44, Carney 38  Marino +6

Pennsylvania 11th District – Barletta vs. Kanjorski (Times Leader/Critical Insights)
Barletta 43, Kanjorski 41 Barletta +2

That’s Sestak getting trounced, two House incumbents trailing, and Democrats losing in Sestak’s open seat. And this comes after another Pa. Democrat, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of PA-3, was cut loose by the party (she will likely lose by doubt digits).

There are still three other races to watch: In PA-8, Mike Fitzpatrick is competitive and (update) in a survey released today, leads Rep. Pat Murphy by five points and has more than 50 percent of the vote. R. In PA-12, the Critz vs. Burns rematch looks like a real race.

(Keith Rothfus has not posted any impressive numbers yet in PA-4 against Rep. Jason Altmire, D, but in this environment, and perhaps with a bit of outside help, who knows? The district was drawn for a Republican back in 2001.)

The bottom line: There’s no independent indications of the turnaround that the DSCC is selling — not yet, anyway. You have to wonder what they were thinking when they spent $4 million on negative ads against Toomey. If other Republicans like Sharron Angle, Mark Kirk and Ken Buck win this year, they should thank Toomey for absorbing so much of the Democrats’ budget.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010Pa.US

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