We might finally get a tentative result later today from one of the last congressional seats to be decided, New York’s 25th District. If the counting of absentee ballots in Onondaga County (Syracuse) does not put Rep. Dan Maffei, D, in the lead, then it is almost certain that he has lost re-election to Republican Ann Marie Buerkle. As of yesterday afternoon, Buerkle led by about 300 votes.

If Maffei emerges this evening with only a small lead, he will probably still lose the election. Wayne County, which Buerkle carried by 20 points on Election Day, has yet to begin counting its absentees. That count begins tomorrow, and there are about 1,200 ballots.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010nyUS