New Hill poll has Schilling up by 7 over Hare

Rep. Phil Hare, D, the unabashedly liberal former union steward who represents Illinois’ 17th District, trails by seven points (45 to 38 percent) against Republican Bobby Schilling in a new poll released moments ago by The Hill. The Capitol Hill newspaper has commissioned dozens of polls by Penn Schoen Berland in races nationwide this cycle, and this week’s dozen polls focus on second-term congressmen. They’ll have more on the results today (Wednesday) on their website.

Among the 10 surveys they released, only two will give Democrats genuine reasons to hope. Their polling shows Rep. Mike Arcuri, D-N.Y., leading Republican Richard Hanna by a surprisingly wide margin of 47 to 37 percent. They also show Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Pa., clinging to slim 46-43 lead over Republican Mike Fitzpatrick. Other than that, it’s bad news for Democratic sophomores like Travis Childers, Carol Shea-Porter, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, and Steve Kagen, who all trail. Reps. Chris Carney, Pa., and John Hall, N.Y., are tied with their GOP challengers and poll in the low 40s.

The Schilling-Hare poll’s sample of 417 likely voters backed Barack Obama in 2008, 47 to 40 percent. But this year, they disapprove of his job performance, 52 to 45 percent.That’s reason for Hare to worry. And if I had this ad running against me, I’d be worried: