List of 82 House Dems most likely to lose

Here is a list of 82 Democrat-held House seats that you should be watching on election night, based largely on independent polling but also my sense of where things stand.

For what it’s worth, I’ve italicized the 44 seats that I think are most likely to fall to the GOP. With Republicans likely to lose about five seats of their own (two incumbents and two or three open seats), this happily coincides with the minimum number they must take over in order to gain a House majority.

If you see a good number italicized seats going to Democrats, they I think they still have a chance of keeping the House. If you see a lot of bold ones going to Republicans – particularly in the category of incumbents who lead – then you’re probably seeing a wave.

I’ve broken it down this way in part so that you can watch the fate of the the much debatedincumbent rule” by keeping an eye on how many poorly-polling House incumbents manage to pull it out.

‘Goners’ (6)

  • FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas
  • IL-11: Debbie Halvorson
  • NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
  • OH-1: Steve Driehaus
  • OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy
  • PA-3: Kathy Dahlkemper

Expected open-seat losses (12)

  • AR-1: Marion Berry
  • AR-2: Vic Snyder
  • IN-8: Brad Ellsworth
  • KS-3: Dennis Moore
  • LA-3: Charlie Melancon
  • MI-1 Bart Stupak
  • NY-29: Vacant
  • PA-7: Joe Sestak
  • TN-6: Bart Gordon
  • TN-8: Jim Tanner
  • WA-3: Brian Baird
  • WI-7: David Obey

Dem incumbents under 50% who trail in recent independent polls (29)

  • AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick, 39%
  • AZ-5 Harry Mitchell, 42%
  • AZ-7: Raul Grijalva, 37%
  • CA-11: Jerry McNerney, 42%
  • CA-20: Jim Costa, 40%
  • CO-3: John Salazar, 43%
  • CO-4: Betsy Markey, 41%
  • CT-5: Chris Murphy, 44%
  • FL-2: Allen Boyd, 38%
  • FL-22 Rick Klein, 44%
  • FL-8: Alan Grayson, 41%
  • GA-8: Jim Marshall 37%
  • IL-14 Bill Foster, 42%
  • IL-17 Phil Hare, 38%
  • MS-1 Travis Childers, 39%
  • NJ-3 John Adler, 43%
  • NM-2: Harry Teague, 42%
  • NV-3: Dina Titus, 44%
  • NY-20 Scott Murphy, 42%
  • OH-16: John Boccieri, 39%
  • PA-8: Patrick Murphy, 46%
  • PA-10 Chris Carney, 41%
  • PA-11: Paul Kanjorski, 43%
  • SC-5 John Spratt, 39%
  • TX-17: Chet Edwards, 40%
  • VA-2 Glenn Nye, 41%
  • VA-5: Tom Perriello, 40%
  • VA-9: Rick Boucher, 46%
  • WI-8: Steven Kagen, 37%

Incumbents below 50% and tied (1)

  • MD-1: Frank Kratovil, 40%

Incumbents below 50% who lead (15)

  • CT-4: Jim Himes, 49%
  • ID-1: Walt Minnick, 44%
  • IN-2: Joe Donnelly, 48%
  • IN-9: Baron Hill, 46%
  • KY-6: Ben Chandler, 48%
  • MI-7: Mark Schauer, 45%
  • MI-9: Gary Peters, 48%
  • MN-1: Tim Walz, 47%
  • NC-8: Larry Kissell, 46%
  • ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy, 45%
  • NY-19: John Hall, 47%
  • NY-23: Bill Owens, 44%
  • NY-24: Mike Arcuri, 48%
  • PA-12: Mark Critz, 43%
  • SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, 45%

Possible “surprises” (19)

  • AL-2: Bobby Bright
  • AZ-8: Gabbie Giffords
  • CA-47: Loretta Sanchez
  • CO-7: Ed Perlmutter
  • GA-2: Sanford Bishop
  • IA-2: Dave Loebsack
  • MO-4: Ike Skelton
  • MS-4: Gene Taylor
  • NC-7: Mike McIntyre
  • NH-2: Paul Hodes (open)
  • NM-1: Martin Heinrich
  • OH-6: Charlie Wilson
  • OH-18: Zack Space
  • TN-4: Lincoln Davis
  • TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez
  • TX-27: Solomon Ortiz
  • VA-11: Gerry Connolly
  • WA-2: Rick Larsen
  • WV-1: Alan Mollohan (open)
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