Keystone State is falling out for Dems

How bad are things starting to look for Democrats in Pennsylvania? About as bad as they’re looking in Ohio.

  • The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has now spent at least $2.5 million trying to move the needle in the Senate race between Pat Toomey, R, and Joe Sestak, D. It hasn’t worked. The most recent polls all show Toomey at or near 50 percent, with Sestak trailing by the same 5 to 9 point margin he has trailed by all summer.
  • The Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, Dan Onorato, has been considered dead meat since he was nominated. Recent polls seem to confirm this.
  • Democratic House incumbents on opposite ends of the state are posting terrible numbers, according to the Franklin and Marshall College poll. In Erie (PA-3), Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, D, clocks in at 38 percent and 6 points behind Republican challenger Mike Kelly. The same pollster found Rep. Patrick Murphy, D, in northeast suburban Philly (PA-8), trails by 14 points against the man he defeated in 2006, former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, R.
  • We’ll have to wait and see in the other vulnerable districts: those of Democratic Reps. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), whom the NRCC is hammering with a six-figure ad buy; Mark Critz (PA-12); Jason Altmire (PA-4); and Joe Sestak’s open seat (PA-7). And don’t forget Rep. Chris Carney, D (PA-10), whose opponent is badly flawed but whose district is so Republican that he could be swept away with the tide.
  • All the tough talk of picking up the Allentown seat of Rep. Charlie Dent, R (once held by Toomey) has been silenced. Stu Rothenberg says they can also forget about picking off Rep. Jim Gerlach, R.

The DSCC, facing newly sprung leaks in Wisconsin and New York State, may have to pull the plug on Sestak soon and focus resources on races where they have a better chance (those two states plus Nevada, Illinois, Colorado, and possibly Kentucky and West Virginia) in order to save their Senate majority. If Rep. Mike Castle, R, enters the race in Delaware as a write-in, they might have to spend even more money there.

The DCCC’s only expenditure in Pennsylvania so far this month has been a small purchase of mailers for Dahlkemper’s race. Does that strike you as interesting? There are seven Democratic districts there in serious peril.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010joe sestakUS

Just Posted

San Francisco Giants manager Gabe Kapler, pictured in July at Oracle Park, says team members simultaneously can be “measured and calm” and “looking to push the accelerator.” (Chris Victorio/Special to The Examiner)
How Gabe Kapler sets the tone for Giants’ success with strategy, mindset

‘There’s no doubt in my mind that he’s the hands-down manager of the year’

Artist Agnieszka Pilat, pictured with Spot the Robot Dog from Boston Robotics, has a gallery show opening at Modernism. (Courtesy Agnieszka Pilat)
Screenshots of VCs, Kanye and tech parties by the Bay

In this week’s roundup, Ben Horowitz’s surprising hip-hop knowledge and the chic tech crowd at Shack15

If he secured a full term in the Senate, Newsom would become the most powerful Californian Democrat since Phil Burton at the height of his career, or maybe ever. <ins>(Kevin Hume/The Examiner)</ins>
Firefighters extinguish burning material near Lake Tahoe on Sept. 3 in the wake of the Caldor Fire; environmental scientists say the huge fire is bringing to light deficiencies in forest management. <ins>(Max Whittaker/New York Times)</ins>
Cal Fire, timber industry must face an inconvenient truth

We are logging further into the wildfire and climate crisis

Changing zoning in San Francisco neighborhoods where single family homes prevail is crucial in the effort to achieve equity. (Shutterstock)
To make SF livable, single-family zoning must be changed

Let’s move to create affordable housing for working class families

Most Read