In Maryland, WaPo poll expects ‘08 Dem turnout in ‘10

Today’s WaPo poll has Gov. Martin O’Malley, D, leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, R, in the race for governor of Maryland, 52-41. Unsurprisingly, 87 percent of Democrats line up behind O’Malley and 93 percent of Republicans back Ehrlich. Ehrlich also leads among independents, 54-34.

I’m not surprised to see O’Malley ahead in his re-election race, but by double digits? Interestingly, the poll (and this required some math to figure out, since they provide no details about their likely voter sample) assumes almost the same party turnout as we saw there in 2008: 51 percent Democratic, 28 percent Republican, and 21 percent independent.

In the last gubernatorial election — in 2006, when Ehrlich lost — Democratic turnout was 50 percent and Republican was 31 percent (19 percent independent). In 2004, turnout was 48 percent Democratic and 30 percent Republican.

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010mdUS

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