Hispanic district going Republican?

Amazing! Here’s a poll (by a firm unknown to me) showing Republican challenger Ruth McClung leading four–term Democratic incumbent Raul Grijalva 39%-37% in Arizona 7. This district was designed to be Arizona’s second Hispanic majority House district (it was 54% Hispanic in 2000) and to be safe Democratic (it voted 57%-42% for Barack Obama in 2008 and 57%-43% for John Kerry in 2004). So it would be amazing if rocket scientist McClung (yes, apparently she actually is a rocket scientist) won here.

What’s interesting here is that Grijalva has supported the tourist boycott of Arizona in retaliation for the passage of Senate Bill 1070 which he, like Barack Obama, has portrayed as a grievous violation of civil liberties. Apparently some voters in Arizona 7 don’t want their state boycotted. Arizona’s U.S. House delegation is currently 5-3 Democratic.  But it looks like the House Democrats’ campaign committee is setting Arizona 1 freshman Ann Kirkpatrick adrift and may not be doing too much for 70-year-old Harry Mitchell who beat J. D. Hayworth in the Scottsdale/Tempe 5th district in 2006 and was reelected by a solid margin in 2008. Democrats do seem to be fighting for Arizona 8 sophomore Gabrielle Giffords. Metro Tucson is divided between the 7th and 8th districts; I expect that Tucson TV viewers are going to be seeing a lot of ads for candidates in both districts over the next three weeks.

Beltway ConfidentialNEPUS

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