A new analysis is out today that predicts House Democrats could lose up to 25 seats in the 2010 midterm elections.
According to the non-partisan Cook Political Report, which has been scrutinizing campaign races since 1984, Democrats have two major factors working against them in the coming months as they fight to retain control of the House.
First, according to Cook's David Wasserman, the midterm elections tend to favor older white voters. In the 2008 presidential election, just 45 percent of voters aged 65 and older backed President Barack Obama.
And Second, Wasserman said, House Democrats have slid in generic ballot tests, mostly due to the unpopularity of their sweeping health care proposal that has reinforced the generational divide.
“August has been a very tough month for Democrats,” Wasserman told the Examiner.
The Cook Report's Sept. 3 rating of House races classifies 25 Democratically held seats as competitive in the next election and another 37 Democratically held seats as potentially competitive. Wasserman predicts up to half of the 37 seats will jump to the competitive column in the months ahead, which will leave Democrats scrambling to vigorously defend more than 40 seats.
“The water is looking warmer for potential Republican candidates than in the past couple of years,” Wasserman said.