Early vote in North Carolina: Dems underperforming 2004

Republicans are seeking to gain three (possibly four) House seats in North Carolina this year, and they’re also hoping they can flip the state House and Senate, which would give them a lock on redistricting. (North Carolina’s governor has no veto over redistricting bills.)

So note that in early voting, registered Democrats are underperforming both their vote share in the last three election cycles, although they are down only slightly from 2006 and 2004.

2010 2008 2006 2004

Dem   45.7%      51.4%      48%          48.6%

Rep    37.2%      30.2%      36%          37.4%

Ind     17.0%      18.5%       16%         14.1%

When you just look at the proportions, this year’s early voting looks most like it did in 2004, when Sen. Richard Burr, R, won his first election and George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points.

But don’t draw too many conclusions from this: Early voting this year is double what it was in 2006, and the totals are even higher than the early vote in 2008, a presidential year. But when compared to the presidential year, it’s interesting to see a six-point swing away from Democrats and a seven-point swing toward Republicans.

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