The Hill has released the first of several rounds of polling it plans to do in House districts, and the results for Democrats are just terrible. One of the key takeaways:
Healthcare reform is hurting the reelection chances of freshman Democrats in the House. A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year.
Whatever problems may exist with these polls (and it’s never easy to poll House races), we don’t have to worry about confirmation bias. The pollster is Democrat Mark Penn, who helped Hillary Clinton in 2008.The polls find that, on aggregate, two-thirds of voters will be thinking about President Obama when they cast their congressional vote. Based on these results, I bet most of them will not be thinking nice things.
Here are the topline results for now, with each poll based on responses from about 400 likely voters:
MI-7:
- Schauer, D: 41
- Walberg, R: 41
+
AZ-1:
- Kirkpatrick, D: 39
- Gosar, R: 46
+
IL-11:
- Halvorson, D: 31
- Kinzinger, R: 49
+
MD-1:
- Kratovil, D: 40
- Harris, R: 43
+
NM-2:
- Teague, D: 42
- Walberg, R: 46
+
OH-16:
- Boccieri, D: 39
- Renacci, R: 42
+
VA-2:
- Nye, D: 36
- Rigell, R: 42
+
CO-4:
- Markey, D: 41
- Gardner, R: 44
+
OH-15:
- Kilroy, D: 38
- Stivers, R: 47
+
VA-5:
- Perriello, D: 44
- Hurt, R: 45
+
PA-3:
- Dahlkemper, D: 36
- Kelly, R: 49
If the elections for Congress were held t
oday, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?
Base
MI7
AZ1
IL11
MD1
NM2
NV3
OH16
VA2
CO4
OH15
VA5
PA3
Democrat
39
41
39
31
40
42
44
39
36
41
38
44
36
Republican
45
41
46
49
43
46
47
42
42
44
47
45
49
Other
2
4
1
1
1
1
3
2
3
1
0
2
0
Would not vote
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
Don’t know
13
13
12
18
15
10
6
15
19
14
15
9
15
