Dems hit by devastating new round of House polls

The Hill has released the first of several rounds of polling it plans to do in House districts, and the results for Democrats are just terrible. One of the key takeaways:

Healthcare reform is hurting the reelection chances of freshman Democrats in the House. A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year.

Whatever problems may exist with these polls (and it’s never easy to poll House races), we don’t have to worry about confirmation bias. The pollster is Democrat Mark Penn, who helped Hillary Clinton in 2008.The polls find that, on aggregate, two-thirds of voters will be thinking about President Obama when they cast their congressional vote. Based on these results, I bet most of them will not be thinking nice things.

Here are the topline results for now, with each poll based on responses from about 400 likely voters:

MI-7:

  • Schauer, D: 41
  • Walberg, R: 41

+

AZ-1:

  • Kirkpatrick, D: 39
  • Gosar, R: 46

+

IL-11:

  • Halvorson, D: 31
  • Kinzinger, R: 49

+

MD-1:

  • Kratovil, D: 40
  • Harris, R: 43

+

NM-2:

  • Teague, D: 42
  • Walberg, R: 46

+

OH-16:

  • Boccieri, D: 39
  • Renacci, R: 42

+

VA-2:

  • Nye, D: 36
  • Rigell, R: 42

+

CO-4:

  • Markey, D: 41
  • Gardner, R: 44

+

OH-15:

  • Kilroy, D: 38
  • Stivers, R: 47

+

VA-5:

  • Perriello, D: 44
  • Hurt, R: 45

+

PA-3:

  • Dahlkemper, D: 36
  • Kelly, R: 49

If the elections for Congress were held t

oday, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?

Base

MI7

AZ1

IL11

MD1

NM2

NV3

OH16

VA2

CO4

OH15

VA5

PA3

Democrat

39

41

39

31

40

42

44

39

36

41

38

44

36

Republican

45

41

46

49

43

46

47

42

42

44

47

45

49

Other

2

4

1

1

1

1

3

2

3

1

0

2

0

Would not vote

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

1

0

0

Don’t know

13

13

12

18

15

10

6

15

19

14

15

9

15

Beltway Confidentialelection 2010houseUS

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