A conservative who can win in Delaware?

For obvious reasons, most media attention in Delaware has gone to the Senate race, in which Republican Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell faces Newcastle County Executive Chris Coons, D.

Much less attention is going to the House race to replace Republican Rep. Mike Castle. In that race, Democrats have been favored all along. Conservative real estate investor Glen Urquhart is taking on Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Carney. Urquhart, who spent over half a million dollars to win his hotly contested primary, has released an internal poll that shows Carney enjoying only the narrowest of leads, 45 to 42 percent.

Of course, such campaign polls are usually unreliable, and this one surveyed only 300 likely voters. But that’s not a prohibitively small sample for a House race. Interestingly, the poll assumes party turnout similar to 2008, with Democrats making up 48 percent of the sample and Republicans 33 percent.

PPP, a Democratic firm, has done two public polls in the race so far. The first, taken in early August, showed Carney with an 18-point lead. The second, taken just before the Sept. 14 GOP primary, showed Carney at 48 with an 11-point lead.

Might there be some Urqumentum between now and the election?

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