Steinmetz: Weak West boosts Warriors’ playoff hopes
By: Matt Steinmetz
Special to The Examiner
November 25, 2008
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| New face: Newly acquired Jamal Crawford (6) should provide the Warriors' offense some extra punch. (NBAE/Getty Images) |
SAN FRANCISCO — The NBA Gods played an awful trick on the Warriors last season.
They allowed them 48 wins and one of the most exciting regular seasons in the franchise’s West Coast history, then abruptly halted their roll sans playoffs because there just so happened to be eight 50-win teams in the Western Conference.
The Warriors’ 48-34 mark was the best record for a non-playoff team since the NBA adopted its current 16-team format prior to the 1984 playoffs.
That was then, this is now.
While the Warriors might not be as good as last year, it is very possible — likely, in fact — that they will have a better opportunity to make the postseason this year.
It will not take 50 wins to make the playoffs in 2008-09; it might only take 40.
That’s right, 40.
And who knows? Maybe even less.
Forget the old mind-set of Western Conference dominance. That’s been chipped away, and now what’s left is one dominant team: the Los Angeles Lakers. There are a couple of potential elite teams: the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets.
But there is parity in the rest of the West, and that could very well play to the Warriors’ advantage.
There is a recipe for .500 teams or even sub-.500 teams to make the playoffs.
What you need is an elite team in your conference and a bunch of 40-something win teams. That kind of scenario will sometimes allow you entry into the NBA postseason even without the requisite credentials.
In 2003-04, the Boston Celtics made the playoffs with a 36-46 record. How did they do it?
Well, there was one 60-win team (Indiana Pacers) and four teams bunched up around 41 wins. The third-best team in the conference (New Jersey Nets) had a modest 47 wins, which allowed for a low-win team, the Celtics, to climb into the postseason.
There were similar circumstances in 2005-06 and 2006-07.
Milwaukee made it to the postseason that first year with a 40-42 record. How?
Well, there was Detroit, with 64 wins, and five teams with between 38 and 42 wins.
In addition, that season the worst teams in the Eastern Conference still won 21 and 23 games, a respectable win total for a bottom-dweller.
In 2006-07, Orlando got in with 40 wins. That year there were two teams with 50-plus wins and four teams between 40-44 wins.
Such a scenario certainly is possible in the Western Conference this season.
The Lakers, assuming they stay healthy, are poised to win a lot of games. They might even push 70.
And if a team such as Utah can get up into the high 50s or low 60s, and a handful of other teams hang around .500, it could very easily set up the opposite of a 2007-08.
It’s not outside the realm of possibility that after not getting in with 48 wins last season, the Warriors could conceivably make the playoffs this year with 38 wins.
Matt Steinmetz is the NBA insider for Warriors telecasts on Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. E-mail him at msteinmetz@sfexaminer.com.
