Steinmetz: Warriors could be in for a long season
By: Matt Steinmetz
Special to The Examiner
October 15, 2008
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| Bigger role: Center Andris Biedrins will need to continue to develop for the Warriors to succeed this season. (Getty Images) |
SAN FRANCISCO — The moment Baron Davis took off for the Los Angeles Clippers, the Warriors as we knew them ceased to exist.
With Davis, the Warriors were a pretty good team, a bona fide playoff contender and maybe even the most exciting team in the NBA.
They were an up-tempo team with an elite point guard who could be a difference-maker down the stretch.
What are they now without Davis? That’s what we’re all trying to figure out.
After going back and forth, and giving it all way too much thought, I’m making my 2008-09 prediction for the Golden State Warriors: 37-45.
First off, the Warriors won 48 games last season, an admirable total in the Western Conference. But now they are without Davis and will be without Monta Ellis for at least the first two months of the season — maybe longer.
That drops the Warriors down by about 12 wins in my book. I know that’s a lot but there’s a reason for it.
Not only did the Warriors lose Davis, but no matter who replaces him, there will be a monumental drop-off at the position. Which, I happen to believe, is the most important position in basketball.
The Warriors were terrific on the road (21-20) a year ago. They have no chance of getting that many wins away from Oracle Arena this season.
There’s also the little issue of the conference itself. While the imbalance between the Western Conference and Eastern Conference has tightened some, in general, the better teams reside in the West.
On paper, the Portland Trail Blazers appear better than the Warriors this season. Maybe even the Clippers. That wasn’t the case a year ago.
Another scary thing about the Warriors — scary if you’re looking for big things, anyway — is how much they’re going to have to rely on young players. And if those young players aren’t relied upon, that’s not necessarily a good thing, either.
No doubt, coach Don Nelson will rely heavily on Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins and even Ronny Turiaf.
If Nelson plays those guys a lot, maybe the Warriors will have relative success early. But it’s hard to imagine that group — even with Ellis coming back — sustaining it over the course of a season.
Last season, Jackson and Harrington noticeably wore down. And even though Biedrins finished strong, he’s had a full summer of basketball already.
The only alternative is working Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli and Kelenna Azubuike and all the other youngsters into some sort of pattern of consistent minutes from the get-go.
But that will have ramifications in the loss column.
The Warriors’ talent level — particularly without Ellis to start the season — is in the mid-30-win range. Without Ellis, it’s low 30s.
But that’s where Nelson comes in. Few coaches can milk wins out of challenged teams like Nelson. And this year’s team — without a dominant point guard or inside presence — is quite challenged.
Matt Steinmetz is the NBA insider for Warriors telecasts on Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. E-mail him at msteinmetz@sfexaminer.com.
