Steinmetz: Monta holds the cards to Warriors’ season
By: Matt Steinmetz
Special to The Examiner
December 3, 2008
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| Desperate times: The return of a fully healthy Monta Ellis may be the Warriors’ only hope to salvage this season. (AP) |
SAN FRANCISCO — No doubt, things are looking pretty bleak for the Warriors these days.
They’ve lost seven in a row — the longest losing streak in the Don Nelson Part II Era — and haven’t looked good doing it.
Their roster appears to be mismatched, with too many scorers and not enough ballhandlers, passers and rebounders.
What’s worse, the Warriors have several players locked up for the long-term, making the prospects of changing their roster more daunting.There is one sliver of hope, however, and even coach Don Nelson referred to it on Monday as the “wild card.”
That would be Monta Ellis.
Ellis, of course, suffered a serious left ankle injury while riding a moped this summer, and hasn’t played all season. He is expected back, but nobody really knows when.
Might be late December, might be early January, might be mid-January or later than that.
When Ellis does come back, we’ll get a more accurate reading of how far the Warriors have fallen. Right now, it’s easy to lament the Warriors’ fall from a 48-win team of a year ago to the one that’s 5-13 this season.
But maybe when Ellis comes back, we’ll find out that the Warriors aren’t in as bad of shape as they appear to be right now. It’s possible Ellis can come back and make the Warriors look like a very different — and improved — team.
The problem, however, is it’s impossible to gauge how big of an impact Ellis is going to be able to make.
Will Ellis prove to be a legitimate difference-maker, the kind of player who brings home some victories in close games? Can he be the impetus to turn the Warriors from an eight-games-under-.500 team to a team that climbs back to .500?
Maybe that’s asking too much.
The other possibility, however, must be allowed for. What if Ellis returns and doesn’t make the kind of impact you were hoping for?
What if Ellis’ 20 points per night, or thereabouts, just kind of gets absorbed into the Warriors’ offense, but no discernible team improvement accompanies it?
That is also a possibility. There’s just really no way to know.
Ellis’ value to the Warriors will likely prove to be somewhere in the middle of that range, but he could be a real device for change.
When Ellis returns, the Warriors will likely go from an isolation team to a pick-and-roll team. That switch alone could very well go a long way toward alleviating the stagnation problems on the offensive end.
By Ellis merely running the pick and roll, it sets up a completely different offensive dynamic for the Warriors. There will be fewer times when perimeter players are isolated on the wing while four teammates watch. And there will be more Ellis coming off a high screen for his mid-range jumper, more Ellis hitting Andris Biedrins for a layup and more Ellis kicking it to a teammate with defenses in rotation.
That change isn’t going to make the Warriors title contenders. But it should quiet the grumbling masses a tad.
Matt Steinmetz is the NBA insider for Warriors telecasts on Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. E-mail him at msteinmetz@sfexaminer.com.
Warriors’ woes
A glance at some key numbers during the Warriors’ seven-game losing streak:
107.6 Average points per game
117 Opponents’ average points per game
10.6 Average margain of defeat
39.6 Average rebounds per game
50.9 Opponents’ average rebounds per game
