Obama’s Osama bounce is small, limited, and likely temporary 

Today’s Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking numbers are the first complete set of post-Osama numbers. When paired with other major polls they show President Obama received little boost from the Navy SEALs killing of bin Laden. Gallup (sample size 1,558), reports a 6 point post-Osama bounce (46% to 52%). Rasmussen (sample size 1,500), measured no bounce with Obama’s approval raring holding steady at 49%.

Quinnipiac released their first post-Osama poll today (Sample size 1,409), showing a 6 point bounce as well (46% to 52%). This is very close to CNN‘s 4 point, 48% to 52% bounce. All of these polls showed that further the question gets away from terror/Afghanistan, the weaker the Obama bounce is.

For example, the Quinnipiac poll shows Obama’s approval rating on Afghanistan jumped 18 points, on foreign policy up 8 points, on Libya up 4 points, and on the economy up 1 point. There simply is no “game changing” surge in faith in Obama’s competence on other issues.

And what bump there is probably will not last. According to Gallup, President Bush received a 7 point bump when Saddam Hussein was captured, but that gain evaporated in less than a month. Worse for Obama, according to Quinnipiac, his re-elect among independents actually went down:

Independent voters go from a negative 41 – 52 percent overall approval as of Sunday to a positive 47 – 41 percent today. But only 36 percent of independent voters say today he deserves reelection, compared to 41 percent Sunday.

The Washington Post and New York Times both published poll showing larger Obama bounces, but those polls had tiny sample size that were less than half what those news organizations usually require.

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Conn Carroll

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