Last week, I wrote that bettors should lean heavily on the under because of all the bad quarterbacks. What a no brainer! Then, naturally, the over won more than it lost — and Tom Brady and the Patriots came within a touchdown of single-handedly putting their game against the Denver Broncos over the point total. This week, I won’t make such a stupid blanket statement, but I will continue to bet against Tom Savage. That is one thing I will never give up on. If only, by some magical means, there was an available quarterback who played like their mobile-but-injured Deshaun Watson. Somebody with postseason experience and has a history of moving the ball without turning it over. Of course, that free agent quarterback doesn’t exist.
The Detroit offense has scored 30 or more points in its last two games — one of which was at Lambeau Field, where the Lions traditionally don’t play well. Starting left tackle Taylor Decker is expected to return this week against the Bears. Chicago, meanwhile, couldn’t contain Packers backup quarterback Brett Hundley last week and can’t move the ball on offense thanks to an overly conservative style. Good teams have beaten John Fox’s squad by at least a touchdown. This will be a good test if the Lions are actually good or not.
Cardinals/Texans — under 40.5
The main event: Blaine Gabbert vs. Tom Savage. The ol’ These Teams Have No Excuse For Not Signing Colin Kaepernick Bowl. Niners fans know how ineffective Gabbert is at moving the ball. Savage hasn’t taken a snap in which he’s looked like a professional quarterback all season. This is the game that the under play was invented.
Washington/Saints — over 51
New Orleans has been incredible this year. Its offense ranks in the top three in rushing yards per game, total yards per game and points per game. The Saints have won seven straight weeks. They’re coming off of a 47-10 beatdown of the Bills in Buffalo. There’s no reason to believe they can’t continue to put tons of points on the board in their return to the Big Easy. The scary part is Washington: Can Kirk Cousins’ unit create enough points to put this over? I’m hopeful that the 30 points his team scored against Minnesota — another top-flight defense — is indicative of future success.
Philip Rivers passed the concussion protocol and will be ready for this contest. His Chargers will be playing a home game that doesn’t carry any inherent advantage as fans in LA don’t care about the Bolts. Buffalo switched its quarterback midweek and — while I don’t agree with the decision — it should jar this team awake in a way that allows them to narrowly beat the Chargers. If it doesn’t, blame the Bills’ brass for turning its back on a steady QB — and me for betting Nathan Peterman could win his first game ever on the road.
A true Pooper Bowl will be played in Denver today. Andy Dalton vs. Brock Osweiler is a match of whom you want to bet against more. Until the Broncos defense proves it’s ready to bail out its inept offense week-after-week, I’ll continue to take any points Osweiler’s team is giving.
Week 10: 2-3
MATCHUP SPREAD MONEYLINE OVER/UNDER
Detroit at Chicago DET -3 DET -150, CHI +130 +/- 41
Kansas City at NYG KC -10.5 KC -500, NYG +400 +/- 45
Tampa Bay at Miami MIA -1 TB -105, MIA -115 +/- 40.5
Baltimore at Green Bay BAL -2 BAL -130, GB +110 +/- 38
LA Rams at Minnesota MIN -2.5 LAR +120, MIN -140 +/- 46
Arizona at Houston PICK ARI -110, HOU -110 +/- 40.5
Jacksonville at Cleveland JAX -7.5 JAX -360, CLE +300 +/- 37.5
Washington at New Orleans NO -8 WAS +320, NO -400 +/- 51
Buffalo at LA Chargers LAC -4 BUF +170, LAC -190 +/- 44
Cincinnati at Denver DEN -2.5 CIN +125, DEN -145 +/- 39.5
NE vs. Oakland (Mexico City) NE -7 NO -300, OAK +250 +/- 53.5
Philadelphia at Dallas PHI -3.5 PHI -190, DAL +170 +/- 48.5
Atlanta at Seattle SEA -3 ATL +135, SEA -155 +/- 45
Lines courtesy William Hill; updated Friday, Nov. 17
On bye week: Carolina, Indianapolis, NYJ, San Francisco