2009 predictions: The shape of things to come
By: Mike Aldax
Examiner Staff Writer
December 31, 2008
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| Will the Newsoms settle down and have children in the new year? (Getty Images file photo) |
SAN FRANCISCO — Will the Newsoms settle down and have children in the new year? Can Obama deliver his campaign promises? Is it the end of football in The City? Don’t forget about Sarah Palin.
Wipe off that poker face, because no one’s buying it.
With an ongoing recession, a presidential transition and no clear understanding of the relationship between Madonna and New York Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez, there are no safe bets on the outcomes of 2009. Will the 49ers announce a move to Santa Clara? Can California legislators balance the budget? Is this the year Katie Holmes and Tom Cruise split?
The possibilities are countless and difficult to predict. The Examiner tapped an expert crew of oddsmakers from Internet gambling portal Betonline.com to help shine some light on the next 365 days. The group, led by analyst T.J. Kendrick, meets weekly to crunch numbers and research trends on everything from sports to politics to celebrity relationships.
“We try to come up with the most appealing odds on topics people are most interested in,” Kendrick said.
Here’s a sampling of what Kendrick and his team predict will take place locally and nationally in 2009.
Bonds behind bars
ODDS: 6-1
Not with the kind of lawyers he can afford. But more than that, he’s no longer in baseball, which somewhat takes the spotlight off Barry Bonds, and the steroids issue is no longer at the forefront of major news issues, Kendrick said. “The limelight and spotlight can dictate the severity of sentencing, and now that he’s taken himself away from the game, a lot of the heat is off of him,” Kendrick said. And did we mention he can buy the best lawyers?
Mayoral baby
ODDS: 9-16
Mayor Gavin Newsom has apparently swept his relationship-hopping days under the rug, marrying actress Jennifer Siebel last summer and robbing The City of its most eligible bachelor. But while the gossip columns have ceased speculation about the mayor’s love life, they’re now wondering whether he’s looking to start a family. According to the experts, there’s a good chance the first lady of San Francisco will announce she’s pregnant this year, Kendrick said. Newsom, once the naughty politician who admitted to an illicit sexual affair with the wife of one of his aides, is considering running for governor in 2010, and being a family man could benefit his campaign. “It’s obviously good politics to have kids,” Kendrick said.
Oscar for Ledger
ODDS: 1-4
It’s hard not to award Heath Ledger’s brilliant final performance as the Joker in “The Dark Knight,” the latest Batman movie, even if the film was the type of blockbuster the Academy typically doesn’t recognize, Kendrick said. In January, the 28-year-old actor died from an accidental drug overdose. “Although it’s a big-budget movie, voters will have a soft spot for a young actor’s last and finest performance,” Kendrick said.
Recession worsens
ODDS: 1-5
With interest rates continuing to drop, forecasts of fresh mortgage woes and lagging retail sales, you’d be hard-pressed to say that odds are in favor of an improving economy in 2009. “There just hasn’t been enough positive information to predict a positive outcome this year,” Kendrick said. You can bet on a tough year ahead.
Proposition 8 overturned
ODDS: Can’t predict
The oddsmakers aren’t touching this one — it’s like setting odds on a game that might not even be on the schedule, Kendrick said. The court battle regarding the proposition— which passed in November, effectively banning same-sex marriage in California — is an unprecedented issue with varied possibilities, none of which are predictable. The state Supreme Court, above, could void the proposition, or allow it to stand and nullify the 18,000 same-sex marriages performed last summer, or it could let those marriages stand while banning new ones. “There are too many variables,” Kendrick said.
Puppy for the Obama daughters
ODDS: 1-8
In the next four years, President-elect Barack Obama will have to follow through on a truckload of promises he made during his campaign. The new puppy he promised his daughters on election night seems like the easiest to deliver, so he might as well head to the kennel. Obama is said to be going for a rescue dog. He’s apparently looking to save America’s pets from a disastrous economy as well.
Promised tax break
ODDS: 8-5
With billions of federal dollars being spent on corporate and industrial rescue missions, it’s hard to imagine Americans will not have to chip in their current share of taxes. “They’re going to have to weigh the benefits of tax cutting,” Kendrick said. “At this point, the government is going to need that money.”
Balanced budget
ODDS: 9-4
The massive amount of money the state is spending to repair damages from recent natural disasters is just one of several factors that will compound the state’s ability to balance its budget. Another factor: political infighting. People might think Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is hard-nosed about passing balanced budgets on time, but the state’s track record indicates otherwise, Kendrick said.
Muni improves performance
ODDS: 7-2
The Transit Effectiveness Project, set to begin this year, is a wide-reaching effort to improve Muni’s oft-criticized reliability. Will riders notice the difference this year? Probably not, the experts say. While new seeds will be planted, The City’s transportation system will suffer from massive cuts stemming from a downward economy, and that might hinder immediate improvements.
Odds on 5 events we might see in 2009
49ers to Santa Clara?
Coming up with the cash for a new stadium during a recession is difficult. “We think the 49ers will stay,” Kendrick said. Odds: 7-2
Terror or temblor?
Kendrick said his team will not assess which disaster is more likely: “We don’t want to profit on other people’s misery or suffering.” Can’t predict
Newsom drops out?
The mayor is likely to stick with his nascent bid for governor. “He’s someone who people listen to,” Kendrick said. Odds: 9-4
Katie Holmes, Tom Cruise split up?
“We think their union is secure,” Kendrick said. Odds: 12-1
Paula Abdul quits‘American Idol’?
Why would she? “We don’t see her getting away from that cash cow,” Kendrick said. “She has nothing else going on.” Odds: 9-4
Return of the Hockey Mom: Whether you think Alaska’s Republican governor is a proud representative of the average Jane or a dolt who said being able to see Russia from her state’s shores counted as foreign diplomacy experience, the majority of Americans now know who Sarah Palin is. But that doesn’t mean she’s rushing back to the political scene right away — not until after 2009, experts predict. ODDS: 9-4
